Past predictions
A dated claim should not float forever. This ledger preserves what was forecast, who said it, the horizon, the qualification—and the question that deserves a fair update.
A fair test
Definitions drift, and timelines often bundle several milestones. Revisit the original wording, separate plans from deployments and outcomes, then ask what evidence would change the judgment.
Sep 14, 2023 · Guest forecast
— Rachel Woods
Original qualificationA possibility about organizational design, not a promise of labor outcomes.
What to check nowDid AI change the shape of the organization—or mainly add another layer of tools?
Dec 21, 2023 · Guest forecast
— George Kamide
Original qualificationSeveral predictions bundled together; each deserves a separate update.
What to check nowWhich parts happened, which did not, and what definition of adoption are we using?
Dec 28, 2023 · Host forecast
— Jeff Wilser
Original qualificationA dated host forecast, not a documented outcome.
What to check nowSeparate market exits, acquisitions, incident frequency, and real-world severity.
Jan 4, 2024 · Guest forecast
— David Becker
Original qualificationAn expectation about law and enforcement capacity.
What to check nowWhat changed in law, enforcement, platform practice, and actual incidents?
Apr 18, 2024 · Vendor forecast
— Kordel France
Original qualificationA staged vendor forecast; demonstrations, shipments, and useful work are different milestones.
What to check nowAudit narrow deployment before asking whether broad capability arrived.
Jun 20, 2024 · Vendor forecast
— Neil Katz
Original qualificationThe accuracy metric was not fully defined; the safety caveat is part of the claim.
What to check nowDefine the benchmark, error classes, calibration, and consequence of the remaining failures.
Oct 14, 2024 · Vendor forecast
— Tesla
Original qualificationPrice, consumer availability, approved service, and safe operation are separate tests.
What to check nowCompare the plan with delivered vehicles, operating service, approvals, and safety evidence.
May 8, 2025 · Guest forecast
— Matt Britton
Original qualificationA futurist forecast; task delegation and professional displacement are not the same measure.
What to check nowWhat work was actually delegated—and what happened to usage, errors, regulation, and jobs?