Curated playlist · 06
When fluency is not proof
Consciousness, forecasts, contested predictions, and high-stakes decisions all punish the same mistake: confusing a persuasive surface with knowledge.
The question beneath the question
What evidence would justify the claim—and what would change our minds?
A confident answer is not a source, a prediction is not an outcome, and an architectural indicator is not a consciousness detector. The discipline is to preserve definitions, uncertainty, and independent paths to the evidence.
“How do we know if AIs are conscious? What will it look like? What’s the criteria?”
Jeff Wilser
The listening order
Each stop changes the question.
Dr. Grace Lindsay
How Will We Know if AI is Alive (Conscious), w Neuroscientist Dr. Grace Lindsay
Begin with a scientific framework that refuses to become a simple consciousness test.
Jeff Wilser
10 AI Predictions for 2024
Treat forecasts as dated claims with sources, incentives, and definitions.
Carissa Véliz
When AI Forecasts Become Self-Fulfilling (and Who This Hurts), w/ Carissa Véliz
Ask what contestability requires when a prediction affects a person.
Ankit Panda & Andrew Reddie
The Real Risks of AI and Nuclear War, w/ Ankit Panda & Andrew Reddie
End where evidence compression and automation bias carry the highest stakes.
Carry it forward
Before trusting the answer, ask what would count as evidence—and whether the system lets you inspect it.
Continue with the related deep dives, evidence notes, or full conversations.